Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop May Be Warning for Stocks: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto market remains under pressure and falling in October. Bitcoin has dropped 3% to $107,500 in the past 24 hours, while ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL have seen even bigger losses. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell more than 4%.
Among the top 100 coins, only ICP, ASTER and HASH remain in the green, with ASTER boosted by Binance co-founder ChangPeng “CZ” Zhao’s disclosure of his exposure to the token.
It’s worth flagging that BTC has recently decoupled from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, with upside likely capped by consistent profit-taking by long-term holder wallets.
Here’s some food for thought for traditional finance traders: The decoupling could be an early warning signal for stocks. In 2021, BTC topped out in November and stocks followed suit about a month later. Coincidentally, options tied to the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are already showing signs of overexuberance, a typical hallmark of market tops.
For now, bulls remain confident as BTC prices stay above the $100,000 mark.
“Historical data show November as the strongest month for BTC performance, averaging returns above 40% across the past decade,” said Emir Ebrahim of ZeroCap. “With macro uncertainty easing and risk sentiment gradually improving, positioning remains favorable for a continuation of the longer-term uptrend into year-end.”
Chart analysts see things differently. Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt opened a short trade in BTC futures, noting that a “megaphone” pattern on the bitcoin chart usually signals a price drop.
Trends come and go, but some things remain constant, like the steady pace of hacks, which continue to raise questions about blockchain infrastructure security and highlight that institutional impact hasn’t yet moved beyond pricing. Just today, Balancer was hacked for millions.
In regulatory news, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is preparing to expand central oversight over key financial infrastructures – including stock exchanges, crypto exchanges and clearing houses to reduce market fragmentation and boost the bloc’s competitiveness.
On the traditional markets side, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded near three-week highs as traders await economic data releases this week, including ADP employment, ISM PMIs and the Michigan sentiment index. Stay alert!
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Nov. 3, 1:30 p.m. UTC: Horizen (ZEN) hosts an AMA on X to discuss key product updates and roadmap progress as Darkswap prepares for its mainnet launch.
- Macro
- Nov. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global Brazil Oct. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 46.5).
- Nov. 3, 10:30 a.m.: S&P Global Canada Oct. Manufacturing PMI Est. 48.2.
- Nov. 3, 10:45 a.m.: S&P Global U.S. Oct. (final) Manufacturing PMI Est. 52.2.
- Nov. 3, 11 a.m.: S&P Global Mexico Oct. Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 49.6).
- Nov. 3, 11 a.m.: U.S. ISM Oct. Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.2.
- Nov. 3, 2 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook is giving a speech on “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” Watch live.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov. 3: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.04.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- ZKsync DAO is voting to launch a six-month, 37.5M ZK pilot staking program, offering up to 10% APY for delegating to active voters. Voting ends Nov. 3.
- Ether.Fi DAO is voting to authorize its foundation to use up to $50M from the treasury for ETHFI token buy-backs, exercisable only while the token price is below $3.00. Voting ends Nov. 3.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Nov. 3: Monade MON) airdrop claim period ends.
- Nov. 3: Kite (KITE) to be listed on Binance, Bitrue, MEXC, and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- A woeful week of price action extended Monday with altcoins including , doublezero (2Z) and plasma all facing heavy sell pressure.
- ENA and 2Z both slumped by 7% over the past 24 hours to compound a 30% decline over the past seven days. Plasma trades at $0.27, a stark contrast from this time last month when it was hovering around $0.90 the week after it went live.
- There is one reason for restrained optimism within the altcoin market: The average relative strength index is at 37.51/100, indicating oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally.
- Much of that will depend on the direction of bitcoin and ether , both of which are down to a lesser extent on Monday as they challenge levels of support at $107,500 and $3,700, respectively.
- A break to below these levels would cause a ripple effect across the altcoin market due to varying levels of liquidity which, coupled with potential derivatives liquidations, could spur a cascading effect.
- If bitcoin can move back above the $112,000 mark it would relieve bearish sentiment and give altcoins an opportunity to challenge previously resilient levels of resistance.
- The entire crypto market cap is at $3.59 trillion having lost $600 billion worth of value since Oct. 6.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC and ETH futures open interest (OI) remained largely unchanged in the past 24 hours, while OI in altcoins, including XRP, HYPE and DOGE dropped, indicating capital outflows from the broader market.
- However, the OI-normalized cumulative volume delta for BTC and ETH has declined in tandem with the broader market, suggesting that a bias towards short positions has driven the OI higher.
- Volmex’s bitcoin and ether 30-day volatility indexes are on the rise again, pointing to renewed expectations for price turbulence.
- On the CME, BTC and ETH’s annualized three-month basis remains locked below 10%. Positioning in ether futures and options remains elevated relative to bitcoin.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options show a bias for put options in the short- and near-dated expiries.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 2.15% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $107,244.97 (24hrs: -3.27%)
- ETH is down 4% at $3,706.20 (24hrs: -4.78%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.99% at 3,466.32 (24hrs: -4.84%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0095% (10.4211% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.89
- Gold futures are up 0.27% at $4,007.30
- Silver futures are up 0.38% at $48.35
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 52,411.34
- Hang Seng closed up 0.97% at 26,158.36
- FTSE is up 0.13% at 9,729.98
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,700.41
- DJIA closed on Friday little changed at 47,562.87
- S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at 6,840.20
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.61% at 23,724.96
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.27% at 30,260.74
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.13% at 3,003.67
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.2 bps at 4.089%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.36% at 6,898.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.57% at 26,151.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.1% at 47,770.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 60.30% (0.66%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03452 (-2.32%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,110 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $43.50
- Total Fees: 2.08 BTC / $230,523
- CME Futures Open Interest: 140,040 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 25.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 7.21%
Technical Analysis
- Solana’s price has dropped below the trendline connecting April and June lows.
- In other words, the bullish trendline has been breached in a sign of seller dominance.
- The focus now shifts to the August low of $155.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $343.78 (+4.65%), -1.49% at $338.67 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $126.98 (+3.48%), -0.98% at $125.73
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $35.01 (+2.58%), -1.29% at $34.56
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $50.57 (+1.24%), -0.53% at $50.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.27 (+2.87%), -1.64% at $17.97
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.78 (-6.21%), -1.82% at $19.42
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.54 (+3.86%), +0.74% at $21.70
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.8 (+0.62%), -2.92% at $17.28
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $57.39 (+1.2%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.49 (+3.2%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $269.51 (+5.87%), -1.86% at $264.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $26.46 (+7.5%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $13.84 (+8.38%), -4.05% at $13.28
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.47 (+4.93%), -4.47% at $4.27
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.09 (+7.18%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$191.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $61.15 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.34 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$98.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.38 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- Why Did Fed Inject $29.4B in Liquidity and What Does It Mean for Bitcoin? (CoinDesk): Overnight repos eased reserve strain, a positive for the leading crypto asset, by lowering funding stress and volatility, but the move is temporary and falls short of quantitative easing.
- Dogecoin, Cardano Lead Sell-Off on Profit-Taking, Gold Pulls Back as China Ends Tax Rebate (CoinDesk): Crypto logged its worst October since 2015 as bitcoin dropped to near $106,000 and selling by long-term holders accelerated. China’s policy shift cooled gold after a retail surge.
- Balancer Hit by Apparent Exploit as $110M in Crypto Moves to New Wallets (CoinDesk): A faulty access control in the “manageUserBalance” function of the platform’s main smart contract enabled unauthorized internal withdrawals across Sonic, Polygon and Base.
- How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): Lower pass-through from import duties, corporate margin cushions and production shifts to Vietnam and Mexico kept prices tamer than anticipated as duty receipts undershot forecasts, muting inflation pressures.
- Swiss Crypto Bank AMINA Secures MiCA License in Austria (CoinDesk): New authorization clears an EU platform serving professional investors with crypto trading, custody, portfolio management and staking, widening institutional access under the bloc’s harmonized rulebook.
- Hong Kong to Allow Crypto Exchanges to Tap Global Capital Pools (Bloomberg): Today’s SFC circular will let licensed exchanges connect Hong Kong clients to global order books, aligning crypto with equity trading rules.
